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    100 Rafale jets set to shift the momentum in the Russia-Ukraine war — how will Putin react?

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    Ukraine to Buy 100 Rafale Fighter Jets from France

    The ongoing war between Ukraine and Russia may witness a major turning point. On Monday, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy and French President Emmanuel Macron signed a historic agreement. Under this deal, Ukraine will receive 100 Rafale fighter jets, drones, air-defence systems, and other advanced weapons from France over the next ten years. Zelenskyy has called it “the world’s strongest air-defence boost.”

    But will these jets change the direction of the war? And how will Russian President Vladimir Putin respond?


    What is the Rafale jet and why is it special?

    Rafale is France’s most advanced fighter aircraft. It is a 4th-generation multirole jet capable of air combat, long-range strikes, and intercepting missiles. Each aircraft costs around ₹850 crore. While France earlier provided Mirage jets to Ukraine, this is the first time Rafales are being supplied.

    The Rafale performs similarly to the American F-16. Ukraine currently has only 9 F-16s and 2 Mirage jets; the rest are aging Soviet aircraft. The arrival of Rafales will significantly strengthen Ukraine’s air power. Experts say these jets will be able to intercept Russian missiles and drones more effectively.
    However, the first batch will take at least three years to arrive due to required pilot training.


    How was the deal signed and what does it include?

    On 17 November 2025, both leaders signed a Letter of Intent at the Villacoublay Air Base in Paris. This is not a final contract but a framework for future procurement. The deal includes:

    • 100 Rafale F4 jets to be delivered by 2035
    • Drones and radars for air-to-air and air-to-ground missions
    • SAMP/T air-defence systems, considered more effective than the American Patriot against Russian missiles

    Funding will come from EU programs and Russia’s frozen assets. Ukraine is also considering co-production, enabling it to manufacture jets domestically. This follows Ukraine’s earlier agreement with Sweden for 150 Gripen jets, as part of its plan to build an air fleet of 250 new aircraft.


    What impact will this have on the war?

    Ukraine’s air-power weakness has been a major challenge. Russia drops around 6,000 glide bombs every month, devastating border towns. Recent attacks in Kharkiv and Balakliya killed dozens of civilians.
    With Rafales, Ukraine will be able to conduct long-range strikes and push back Russian aircraft.


    What do experts say?

    • Short-term: The impact will be limited. Training and delivery will take years, and currently the war is tilted in Russia’s favour as it continues to capture territory.
    • Long-term: Rafales will intimidate Moscow. Ukraine will gain the capacity to strike deeper into Russian territory, deterring future aggression. The jets could potentially outmatch Russian fighters.
    • Challenges: Ukraine still needs large funds. With reduced U.S. assistance under the Trump administration, Europe has stepped up. France says it intends to rebuild Ukraine’s military capability.

    What might Putin do next?

    The Kremlin has not issued an immediate response, but Russia’s stance remains firm. Putin rejects calls for a ceasefire, insisting that Ukraine is stockpiling weapons. Russia hopes for negotiations with Trump but refuses to soften its demands.

    Possible Russian reactions:

    • Increasing territorial advances: Russia is capturing villages in Donetsk and Zaporizhzhia.
    • More airstrikes: Intensified missile and drone attacks on Ukraine’s energy plants.
    • Hybrid warfare: Proxy attacks in Romania and Poland, such as the LNG tanker strike. According to UK Minister Tom Tugendhat, Putin aims to “intimidate Europe by widening the conflict.”
    • Political pressure: Attempts to strike a deal with Trump to reduce Western support for Ukraine.

    Macron has said Russia is “addicted to war” and insists peace must be restored before 2027, but Putin remains unyielding.


    A ray of hope, but a long road ahead

    This deal marks a major strategic gain for Ukraine, especially at a time when U.S. support has become uncertain. Rafales will significantly reinforce Ukraine’s air defence, yet ending the war will require more weapons, training, and diplomacy.
    As Ukrainians brace for winter under relentless Russian attacks, the world hopes for peace — but Putin shows no sign of stepping back.

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